The number 13 is unlucky in western minds. It is not in Asian minds. This may explain in part why many westerners view 2013 with foreboding. Most Asians do not。
Asia’s underlying trend – its resurgence – will continue in 2013. In 2012, about 500m Asians are middle class. By 2020, that number will have grown to 1.75bn. The demand for products will increase. India had no mobile phones in 1990. It had 752m in 2010. Now people are switching to smartphones – there are already 17m smartphones in India. In 2015, there will be 79m. Asian budget airlines grew 23 per cent in 2012 versus 8 per cent for traditional airlines。
The material rise of Asia is easy to document. The mental and spiritual resurgence is harder to track. But some projects provide symbols of a new era. Nalanda, Asia’s greatest university from 500AD to about 1200AD, will continue its gentle restoration under Nobel laureate Amartya Sen, who heads the “Nalanda Mentor Group”. In August 2013, the first batch of students will enrol at the Yale-NUS College. From this seed, a great plant will grow. Projects that bring together the best of eastern and western learning will showcase the fusion of civilisations。
Yes, there will be challenges aplenty. But countries can learn from this year’s mistakes. In 2012, China committed a huge geopolitical blunder by trying to divide the Association of Southeast Asian Nations at the Phnom Penh meeting in November. As Xi Jinping gradually consolidates his power and wiser counsel prevails, China may realise the wisdom of Deng Xiaoping’s advice to China to hide its strength and bide its time. With big leadership transitions over in Beijing and Washington, the main geopolitical relationship of our time will veer towards stability in 2013.
All this may be seen as wishful thinking by sceptical western minds. But the evidence that history has finally turned a corner in the second decade of the 21st century is undeniable. This is why it will be clearer, as this decade unfolds, that the sun will continue rising in the east and continue gently setting in the west。
Kishore Mahbubani is dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore. His forthcoming book is ‘The Great Convergence: Asia, the West, and the Logic of One World’
西方人认为13是个不吉利的数字。但亚洲人没有这个概念。或许部分出于这个原因，许多西方人认为2013年是个不祥的年份，而大多数亚洲人则不这样认为。
亚洲复兴的内在趋势在2013年将进一步巩固。2012年，亚洲有约5亿人已进入中产阶层。到2020年，这一数字将增至17.5亿。商品需求也将增加。1990年，印度还没有人使用手机。2010年，印度的手机用户已达到7.52亿。而如今，人们纷纷把手机换成智能手机——印度目前已有1700万智能手机用户。到2015年，这一数字将达到7900万。2012年，亚洲廉价航空公司的业绩增幅达到23%，而传统航空业同期仅增长8%。
亚洲物质生活水平的提高显而易见，思想和精神上的复兴则更加难觅其踪。但我们可以在一些项目中发现新时代的标志。在“那烂陀顾问团”(Nalanda Mentor Group)的主持下，那烂陀大学(Nalanda)保守重建工作将继续进行。那烂陀大学是公元5世纪到12世纪亚洲最好的大学。“那烂陀顾问团”的负责人为诺贝尔经济学奖获得者阿玛蒂亚？森(Amartya Sen)。2013年8月，耶鲁大学(Yale)与新加坡国立大学(NUS)合办的通识教育学院将迎来第一批学生。种子已经播下，它将长成一棵参天大树。各种融汇东西方智识精华的项目将成为窗口，展示出不同文明融合的硕果。
诚然，我们将会面临众多挑战。但各国可以从今年犯下的各种错误中汲取教训。中国2012年在地缘政治方面犯了一个巨大的错误，即：试图在11月的东盟(ASEAN)金边峰会上分化该同盟。随着习近平的权力逐渐巩固，且一群更明智的智囊人物占据上风，中国可能会意识到邓小平的智慧。邓小平提出，中国应“韬光养晦”。到2013年，中国和美国都完成领导人更迭之后，世界地缘政治局势将趋于稳定。
在一些多疑的西方人看来，这一切可能都是一厢情愿的美好想象。但不容否认的是，在本世纪第二个十年，历史终于出现了转机。正因如此，随着本世纪第二个十年逐渐展开，我们会更清楚地看到，东方仍将如旭日般冉冉上升，而西方仍将一天天日薄西山。
来源：《外语小事》博客
本文来源：网易教育频道综合
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